Every price burst on BTC/ETH/SOL gets a live probability of completing a ±0.16% move, scored at +20/60/120/180/240/300s by a fixed logistic model. Every prediction and its outcome is logged automatically — this table recomputes from that log. No selection, no edits. Columns = predicted-probability buckets; each cell shows average predicted → realized frequency.
| checkpoint | 0-20% | 20-40% | 40-60% | 60-80% | 80-100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +20s | — | 34% → 56% n=70 | 50% → 66% n=212 | 69% → 73% n=248 | 92% → 89% n=314 |
| +60s | — | 32% → 52% n=119 | 50% → 61% n=197 | 69% → 76% n=200 | 91% → 90% n=234 |
| +120s | 17% → 38% n=24 | 31% → 43% n=127 | 50% → 65% n=188 | 70% → 77% n=164 | 89% → 88% n=130 |
| +180s | 15% → 23% n=39 | 30% → 52% n=157 | 49% → 57% n=150 | 70% → 76% n=119 | 88% → 88% n=76 |
| +240s | 15% → 27% n=41 | 31% → 44% n=84 | 50% → 52% n=71 | 68% → 73% n=30 | 87% → 74% n=19 |
| +300s | 13% → 24% n=58 | 29% → 38% n=82 | 48% → 60% n=50 | 68% → 63% n=19 | 91% → 67% n=6 |
Bursts resolved so far: 850 · completed: 644 (76%) · updated 2026-06-12 16:23 UTC (10-min cache)
Confirmed icebergs (level absorbed ≥1× its displayed size, multi-tranche tracking): 1326 resolved — held 0 · broken 391 · pulled 42 · consumed 893 · median executed/displayed 2.0× (survival stats only — no directional claim. Frey & Sandås (QJF 2017): a heavily-executed iceberg = demand already met → LESS follow-through; our 527k-episode base-rate study agrees: P(hold) does not rise with the multiple)
Honest notes: scoring is live since 2026-06-10 — early samples lean on a high-volatility regime; the mix broadens as days accumulate. The model predicts WHEN/WHETHER a move completes, never direction (we measured direction predictability at these horizons: it is not there). Not financial advice. ← Squeeze Radar