Every price burst on BTC/ETH/SOL gets a live probability of completing a ±0.16% move, scored at +20/60/120/180/240/300s by a fixed logistic model. Every prediction and its outcome is logged automatically — this table recomputes from that log. No selection, no edits. Columns = predicted-probability buckets; each cell shows average predicted → realized frequency.
| checkpoint | 0-20% | 20-40% | 40-60% | 60-80% | 80-100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +20s | 17% → 14% n=1275 | 31% → 29% n=12535 | 50% → 51% n=14402 | 69% → 70% n=9857 | 92% → 90% n=10088 |
| +60s | 16% → 15% n=4115 | 30% → 33% n=13273 | 49% → 53% n=11444 | 69% → 71% n=8526 | 91% → 90% n=7783 |
| +120s | 14% → 16% n=7389 | 30% → 35% n=12960 | 49% → 56% n=9389 | 69% → 73% n=6468 | 90% → 89% n=4541 |
| +180s | 13% → 16% n=10069 | 29% → 36% n=12082 | 49% → 57% n=7708 | 69% → 73% n=4634 | 89% → 88% n=2464 |
| +240s | 12% → 15% n=12475 | 29% → 37% n=10929 | 49% → 58% n=5777 | 69% → 72% n=3011 | 88% → 87% n=1241 |
| +300s | 11% → 14% n=15310 | 29% → 37% n=8917 | 49% → 58% n=4004 | 69% → 73% n=1797 | 87% → 84% n=597 |
Bursts resolved so far: 48596 · completed: 27520 (57%) · updated 2026-10-11 04:04 UTC (10-min cache)
Confirmed icebergs (level absorbed ≥1× its displayed size, multi-tranche tracking): 224623 resolved — held 21 · broken 68298 · pulled 7837 · consumed 148467 · median executed/displayed 2.1× (survival stats only — no directional claim. Frey & Sandås (QJF 2017): a heavily-executed iceberg = demand already met → LESS follow-through; our 527k-episode base-rate study agrees: P(hold) does not rise with the multiple)
Honest notes: scoring is live since 2026-06-10 — early samples lean on a high-volatility regime; the mix broadens as days accumulate. The model predicts WHEN/WHETHER a move completes, never direction (we measured direction predictability at these horizons: it is not there). Not financial advice. ← Squeeze Radar