Every price burst on BTC/ETH/SOL gets a live probability of completing a ±0.16% move, scored at +20/60/120/180/240/300s by a fixed logistic model. Every prediction and its outcome is logged automatically — this table recomputes from that log. No selection, no edits. Columns = predicted-probability buckets; each cell shows average predicted → realized frequency.
| checkpoint | 0-20% | 20-40% | 40-60% | 60-80% | 80-100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +20s | 17% → 15% n=446 | 31% → 31% n=6329 | 50% → 51% n=8081 | 69% → 71% n=4966 | 91% → 90% n=4324 |
| +60s | 16% → 16% n=1651 | 31% → 33% n=6962 | 49% → 54% n=6278 | 69% → 72% n=4470 | 90% → 90% n=3333 |
| +120s | 15% → 17% n=3189 | 30% → 35% n=6993 | 49% → 55% n=5163 | 69% → 74% n=3299 | 89% → 89% n=1914 |
| +180s | 14% → 17% n=4673 | 29% → 36% n=6588 | 49% → 57% n=4121 | 69% → 75% n=2255 | 88% → 89% n=1028 |
| +240s | 13% → 15% n=5978 | 29% → 37% n=5928 | 49% → 58% n=2960 | 69% → 73% n=1462 | 87% → 90% n=449 |
| +300s | 11% → 15% n=7501 | 29% → 37% n=4826 | 49% → 59% n=2047 | 68% → 74% n=816 | 87% → 85% n=199 |
Bursts resolved so far: 24352 · completed: 13792 (57%) · updated 2026-08-10 16:30 UTC (10-min cache)
Confirmed icebergs (level absorbed ≥1× its displayed size, multi-tranche tracking): 105926 resolved — held 6 · broken 29378 · pulled 4755 · consumed 71787 · median executed/displayed 2.1× (survival stats only — no directional claim. Frey & Sandås (QJF 2017): a heavily-executed iceberg = demand already met → LESS follow-through; our 527k-episode base-rate study agrees: P(hold) does not rise with the multiple)
Honest notes: scoring is live since 2026-06-10 — early samples lean on a high-volatility regime; the mix broadens as days accumulate. The model predicts WHEN/WHETHER a move completes, never direction (we measured direction predictability at these horizons: it is not there). Not financial advice. ← Squeeze Radar